What constitutes a successful transfer? Is it the quantity of trophies won by the team when a player is on staff? How many goals do they score? How many spotless sheets are there? Some unfathomable form of eye-test-driven contentment? Or exactly how frequently do they play?
I would choose the final option out of all of them. Club record transfers typically only contribute 50% of their new clubs’ available minutes. Therefore, a player who starts more than half of the team’s games could be considered a successful transfer. A low standard, to be sure, but if you invest a lot of money in a player and they perform that frequently, you’re really getting an advantage over your competitors.
Naturally, that does not include the cost the team incurred. Furthermore, it disregards the player’s age and the possibility that they could be traded for further money and added to the club later on.
With the assistance of NFL analyst Kevin Cole, I developed an additional method earlier this summer to assess the success of a transfer: compare the cost the team had to pay to the player’s expected market value one year after their signing. We assessed the top 100 transfers in men’s basketball over the course of the last four seasons using this, and we can now use it to estimate the biggest transfers from the recently closed window.
What is the expected aging of the 30 most expensive summer moves? Let’s order them, top to bottom.
1. Endrick, FW, Palmeiras to Real Madrid
Age (at the time of the deal): 18
Market value (at the time of the deal): €60m
Transfer fee: €47.5m
Projected value change: 54.8% increase
I still have some doubts about Endrick as he is now. He played the entire ninety minutes for a Brazil team that controlled the ball and had Uruguay a man advantage for much of the Copa America quarterfinal. He also completed two passes in those ninety minutes, one of which was the kickoff.
Even so, as a teenager, he was still trusted enough to start a knockout match for Brazil. The same is true of Real Madrid’s choice to pay €47.5 million (later increased to €72 million) for his acquisition. There is still a lot of potential for Endrick to grow, and his fee was still far less than the anticipated market worth. This isn’t a situation like Lamine Yamal’s, where the adolescent is already among the top players in the world.
2. João Neves, CM, Benfica to PSG
Age: 19
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €59.92m
Projected value change: 29.8% increase
3. Leny Yoro, CB, Lille to Manchester United
Age: 18
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €62m
Projected value change: 27.8% increase
You might say, “Oh boy, isn’t that a lot of money for a couple of guys who’ve barely played any professional soccer?” when you see the price paid for both Yoro and Neves. You’re right to believe so, but young players who were bought for roughly what their market value was have generally seen an increase in value, at least in recent memory.
The most significant predictor in this case is age because: a) these players have a ton of room to grow; and b) when a young player breaks through and becomes a star in their early 20s, you have a player who is probably going to play at a world-class level for more than ten years. You would still only anticipate a few more seasons of elite performance if you were to sign a 26-year-old late bloomer who makes the unexpected leap.
4. Julián Álvarez, FW, Manchester City to Atletico Madrid
Age: 24
Market value: €90m
Transfer fee: €75m
Projected value change: 22.7% increase
Uncommon: The window’s priciest offer also appears to be among the greatest. Alvarez, who is approaching his prime, has made significant contributions to what are arguably the world’s top club and national teams.
Although we haven’t seen him step up to the plate as a team’s top offensive option for Manchester City or Argentina, it’s likely that Atletico just acquired one of the world’s best forwards for a significant fraction of what one of these players would normally cost. Pep Guardiola’s desire to let go of players who weren’t giving their all for the team seems to have benefited Atletico.
5. Matthijs de Ligt, CB, Bayern Munich to Manchester United
Age: 25
Market value: €65m
Transfer fee: €45m
Projected value change: 22.4% increase
6. Joshua Zirkzee, FW, Bologna to Manchester United
Age: 23
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €42.5m
Projected value change: 20.3% increase
Erik ten Hag, the manager of Manchester United, says he needs to be a youthful wizard-orphan in order to get his squad playing at a high level, but this summer’s strategy of paying mid-tier rates for young players should really provide him plenty of options. Prior to Ten Hag’s arrival, over half of the players who made their debut in the 3-0 defeat to Liverpool were signed. How many more justifications can he muster?
7. Michael Olise, AM/FW, Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich
Age: 22
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €53m
Projected value change: 20% increase
8. Riccardo Calafiori, LB/CB, Bologna to Arsenal
Age: 22
Market value: €45m
Transfer fee: €45m
Projected value change: 17.8% increase
The going rate for a 22-year-old still projects to be a pretty good deal.
9. Archie Gray, RB/CM, Leeds United to Tottenham
Age: 18
Market value: €18m
Transfer fee: €41.3m
Projected value change: 15.4% increase
10. Conor Gallagher, CM, Chelsea to Atletico Madrid
Age: 24
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €42m
Projected value change: 15%
11. Douglas Luiz, CM, Aston Villa to Juventus
Age: 26
Market value: €70m
Transfer fee: €51.5m
Projected value change: 15%
I wrote last week about how central midfielders, or the men who do a little bit of everything, had been discounted while specialist defensive midfielders had gotten overvalued in recent windows. This summer, the latter remained true.
12. Yankuba Minteh, AM/FW, Newcastle to Brighton
Age: 19
Market value: €16m
Transfer fee: €35m
Projected value change: 14.3% increase
13. Désiré Doué, AM/FW, Rennes to PSG
Age: 19
Market value: €30m
Transfer fee: €50m
Projected value change: 13.2% increase
Minteh was arguably my best summer signing, having scored 10 goals and supplied six assists in 27 Eredivisie games while still a teenager for Feyenoord. Though it’s amusing to see the club owned by Qatar and perhaps the smartest team in the world take similar actions.
One is the little-known player from Newcastle, a team that had to go on a fundraising campaign in order to meet Premier League financial requirements. The other offers a hefty signing bonus to sign Doué, the hottest new French talent. Nevertheless, both movements project equally well.
14. Ian Maatsen, LB, Chelsea to Aston Villa
Age: 22
Market value: €40m
Transfer fee: €44.5m
Projected value change: 12.9% increase
This brings an end to our list of players who, by this point next season, should have gained at least 10% more value. You may have noticed that Chelsea released two players and did not add any new ones.
15. Amadou Onana, CM, Everton to Aston Villa
Age: 22
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €59.4m
Projected value change: 7.5% increase
16. Manuel Ugarte, DM, PSG to Manchester United
Age: 23
Market value: €45m
Transfer fee: €50m
Projected value change: 6.5% increase
I suppose it was cruelly appropriate that Ugarte’s Old Trafford debut came on the same day that Casemiro, the player he will replace, may have produced his worst-ever performance. I’m not sure how much Ugarte will improve upon the in-possession issues Casemiro contributed to against Liverpool, even though he can’t get much worse. Although Ugarte is a prolific ball-winner, he is no longer at PSG in part because he has yet to demonstrate a high degree of passing ability.
17. Evanilson, FW, Porto to Bournemouth
Age: 24
Market value: €35m
Transfer fee: €37m
Projected value change: 4% increase
18. Willian Pacho, CB, Eintracht Frankfurt to PSG
Age: 22
Market value: €35m
Transfer fee: €50m
Projected value change: 1.3% increase
19. Pedro Neto, FW, Wolverhampton to Chelsea
Age: 24
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €60m
Projected value change: 0.7% increase
This is where I and a lot of other people have an issue with this change. For a player with Neto’s characteristics, Chelsea paid a net-neutral rate. If you needed someone you knew would play or if you were missing one more piece of depth, that would be acceptable. However, Neto has only started 37 games for Chelsea over the course of the previous three Premier League seasons, despite the fact that the team has almost 300 other wingers on its roster.
20. Alessandro Buongiorno, CB, Torino to Napoli
Age: 25
Market value: €35m
Transfer fee: €35m
Projected value change: 0.4% increase
The 25-year-old whose fee is equal to his market value is the one we found, and the algorithm thinks that this is almost an exact average transfer.
21. Dani Olmo, AM, RB Leipzig to Barcelona
Age: 26
Market value: €60m
Transfer fee: €55m
Projected value change: 0.1% increase
You can get my explanation of this transfer by taking the Neto portion, changing the word “wingers” to “attacking midfielders,” and keeping the part about the injury history.
22. Robin Le Normand, CB, Real Sociedad to Atletico Madrid
Age: 27
Market value: €40m
Transfer fee: €34.5m
Projected value change: 5.2% decrease
Age is important, as our first negative projection demonstrates. Le Normand is now in his late peak years, thus even with a transfer fee that is somewhat below current market value, his value is expected to fall.
23. Elliot Anderson, CM, Newcastle to Nottingham Forest
Age: 21
Market value: €15m
Transfer fee: €41.2m
Projected value change: 5.2% decrease
24. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, CM, Leicester City to Chelsea
Age: 25
Market value: €30m
Transfer fee: €35.4m
Projected value change: 5.5% decrease
Up to the age of 25, reasonable overpays, or transfer fees that are greater than the current market worth, can still be projected to be rather successful. An action such as this has very little potential benefits.
25. Teun Koopmeiners, CM, Atalanta to Juventus
Age: 26
Market value: €50m
Transfer fee: €54.7m
Projected value change: 10.6% decrease
To be clear, while signing younger players is significantly favored under the model, it isn’t always the case. Since most pros reach their prime between the ages of 24 and 28, that should also be the overall strategy for most clubs. However, some aging players are still valuable.
Consider Federico Chiesa, a 27-year-old that Juventus traded to Liverpool at the end of the window. Due to the fact that he was in the final year of his contract and Juventus was in a desperate attempt to generate money with the transfer window closing soon, Liverpool paid €12 million for a player whose market worth was €35 million. That suggests a 14.1% rise, placing him in the middle of two 19-year-old wingers in these rankings.
26. Georginio Rutter, AM/FW, Leeds to Brighton
Age: 22
Market value: €18m
Transfer fee: €46.7m
Projected value change: 13.7% decrease
If you believe that this approach overestimates the potential of young players, take a look at Rutter. In the midst of the 2022–2023 season, Leeds acquired him from Hoffenheim for €40.5 million. He was meant to be their next big thing, saving them from relegation. Rather, Leeds finished in the bottom three, and he only started one game. Despite Rutter’s mediocre performance in the Championship the previous year, Leeds managed to turn a profit of €5 million by moving him to Brighton.
27. João Félix, AM/FW, Atletico Madrid to Chelsea
Age: 24
Market value: €30m
Transfer fee: €52m
Projected value change: 18% decrease
The model believes that signing Felix, who is gifted but unpopular with all of his prior coaches, would be wise, but only if he is paid his market worth. Chelsea, typical of her, exceeded that figure.
28. João Palhinha, DM, Fulham to Bayern Munich
Age: 29
Market value: €55m
Transfer fee: €51m
Projected value change: 18.4% decrease
The market for defensive midfielders is going to cause a global recession.
29. Max Kilman, CB, Wolves to West Ham
Age: 27
Market value: €32m
Transfer fee: €47.5m
Projected value change: 28.5% decrease
What happens if you allow one of your previous players to be signed by your new manager? On this list, you are almost at the bottom.
30. Dominic Solanke, ST, Bournemouth to Tottenham
Age: 26
Market value: €40m
Transfer fee: €64.3m
Projected value change: 32.3% decrease
This one in particular reveals more about the type of deal Tottenham made than it does about how awful this one was.
Although Solanke is not a young player, he has only had one season of high-level productivity, which was more focused on sheer numbers than efficiency per minute. Spurs paid for a risky transfer because they needed to win right away and because they really wanted a striker, which would explain the amount. It’s doubtful that anyone views Solanke as a €65 million player this time next year, barring the utmost best-case scenario in which he lights up the league and challenges Harry Kane to be England’s starting striker.
Credits: ESPN
